So you are wondering, will my web 2.0 go bang or bust. Well after looking at many of the failures and successes over the years I have a couple of things you might want to keep in mind.
1. Does it take a platform dependent task online - Services like Mint, Google Docs, and Meebo have taken things that are platform dependent and put them online. One thing that I love about the AJAX world we live in is I can now do my personal finances, not in quicken, but in Mint. Sure it is still in its infancy for features, but it works! Google Docs no longer forces me to be using a computer with an office suite installed. I constantly switch amongst my many computers, so knowing if this laptop or that laptop has an office suite installed is no longer an issue. Oh yeah, it also means I don't have to keep emailing files to myself. Lastly, meebo, what a revolution. Who needs to go to oldversions.com to get a stripped down version of AIM. How about using the bloated trillian, no longer. I can now be on a machine, without an installed instant messaging client, and it is ok. Oh yeah, it even saves my chat history amongst all my different computers, across the internet.
2. Is it easy to adopt - One of the problems traditional software developers have run into is horrendous user interfaces. Functions are scattered, graphs are slow loading, and users get frustrated at weird error messages. Web 2.0 in the enterprise and personal space has brought about a great new world of easy to use (not necessarily accesible) web sites. Youtube is simple, no plugins, files searching, etc... It is data when you want it, where you want it, how you want it. The world has gone from one in which organization is king (remember renaming your files with date stamps) to one in which search is king. Who can really organize their 500+ emails a day. Just let your inbox go, let it grow, and learn to search. That called easy adoption, let me do less when I end up getting more.
3. Promotion is necessary - Sure, you have a great website, great code, and an awesome idea, but it can still fail. Promotion is very difficult. People get frustrated that on day 1 they don't have 100,000 users. This won't happen, it takes time. Remember, Google didn't grow in a day, they went through many phases of development. You have to stick it out and promote like there is no tomorrow. Put it in your signatures on forums, get people to write about it in blogs, put it into wikipedia, have an aboutus.org. Embrace web 2.0 by using the tools they provide if you want your web 2.0 to thrive.
4. Legal issues - I am no lawyer, but lets face it, there is a right and wrong when it comes to the web. We have learned from the greats of Napster that you must know the law before you tread. Patents are your friend and your worst enemy. Do youself a favor and do a search or two at Google Patents, this isn't the end all be all, but will give you a good idea. It is called market research. The last thing you want is to have the feds knocking. It might be a good idea to take an opencourseware session or two. Like Law for the Entrepreneur and Manager, it might just save you in the long run.
5. Too much too fast - People adopt things at different rates. Being ahead of your time is great and all, but who remembers the 3d worlds of 10 years ago. No one had hardware, the expertise wasn't there, and adoption didn't happen. Secondlife, however, has hit the world like fire. We are talking massive adoption and desire to be in the world. Companies are buying up land like people were buying houses 3 years ago. This is a great example of being the first to do it right. Secondlife made sure the product was in tune to modern hardware demands, societies willingness to be online, and their desire for more social interaction. I am not saying to not go for the next latest and greatest thing, just make sure it is what you want and that the world can keep up.
I hope that you have learned a thing or two on if your web 2.0 idea will be the next big thing. If I had all the answers I would be in TechCrunch's 40, but I feel like developing in a web 2.0 world for several years I have seen what works and what doesn't. The last thing you want is for your great idea to flop, when someone who put in an extra 30 minutes makes it big. My last piece of advice is ACT FACT!!!, most likely someone else has your idea or will very soon. The old adage still follows: The early bird gets the worm.
John
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